I'm confused with Pursuit. MTC screen order shocked me. I don't see how this makes 8k+ per theatre. Its not that sort of mainstream movie. I'm staying away.
As I mentioned in the other thread shocked with Eragon number. Can't believe it went back down to 22. Very large play for me there.
Charlotte's Web is also another one I don't have a feel for. It flopped in Australia this past weekend but it does have a ton of stars in it. Seems like the sort of movie parents would want their young kids to see but I don't see youngsters flocking to it themselves. Under would be my initial thought.
As I mentioned in the other thread shocked with Eragon number. Can't believe it went back down to 22. Very large play for me there.
Charlotte's Web is also another one I don't have a feel for. It flopped in Australia this past weekend but it does have a ton of stars in it. Seems like the sort of movie parents would want their young kids to see but I don't see youngsters flocking to it themselves. Under would be my initial thought.
Entering 12/1-12/3 weekend:
19-14, ROI +$.19, +5.95 units
After 12/1-12/3 weekend:
24-17, ROI +$.26, +9.85 units
Didn't really have any strong opinions on this weekend's offerings. Did get a couple of smallish scalps in there (although I did goof up in my spreadsheet with Eragon which led to a small mistake)...
Eragon
U22m +134 - 1 unit
O22m -130 - 1/2 unit
U22m +150 - 2/5 unit
O23m -130 - 1 unit
U23m +160 - 9/10 unit
Charlotte's Web
O25m +134 - 1 unit
O25m +240 - 1/2 unit
The Pursuit of Happiness
O17m -150 - 1 unit
O18m -180 - 1 unit
U18m +200 - 9/10 unit
19-14, ROI +$.19, +5.95 units
After 12/1-12/3 weekend:
24-17, ROI +$.26, +9.85 units
Didn't really have any strong opinions on this weekend's offerings. Did get a couple of smallish scalps in there (although I did goof up in my spreadsheet with Eragon which led to a small mistake)...
Eragon
U22m +134 - 1 unit
O22m -130 - 1/2 unit
U22m +150 - 2/5 unit
O23m -130 - 1 unit
U23m +160 - 9/10 unit
Charlotte's Web
O25m +134 - 1 unit
O25m +240 - 1/2 unit
The Pursuit of Happiness
O17m -150 - 1 unit
O18m -180 - 1 unit
U18m +200 - 9/10 unit
CW is really a mother daughter movie...dont know if it can get to 25m...i know the book is huge and these 3 arent bumping heads as they are all catering to different demos...but Happy Feet still a player...its advanced sales were bad...and like you said it flopped in aussie land...just adding up those 3 things makes it an auto under play...
i dont know how pinny does it with their openers bc i know from the time i type in my PC and wager other people are betting...they must lock you in for a few seconds once you hit submit before you type in your PC...bc i got the lowest line on each movie...its like a rat race tying to scramble to type it in and then confirm...
and as soon as i am in i know i cant rebet for a minute so i keep hitting refresh and those lines just skyrocket esp on PofH....that lasted about 20seconds and it was OTB...
i dont know how pinny does it with their openers bc i know from the time i type in my PC and wager other people are betting...they must lock you in for a few seconds once you hit submit before you type in your PC...bc i got the lowest line on each movie...its like a rat race tying to scramble to type it in and then confirm...
and as soon as i am in i know i cant rebet for a minute so i keep hitting refresh and those lines just skyrocket esp on PofH....that lasted about 20seconds and it was OTB...
Utah theatres showing multiple sellouts for Eragon on Friday/Saturday. Couple for Pursuit and Charlotte.
http://www.megaplextheatres.com/nowshowingdetail.php?th_code=all&date=12152006
IMBD movie meter;
#6 Eragon
#33 Pursuit of Happiness
#68 Charlottes Webb
http://www.megaplextheatres.com/nowshowingdetail.php?th_code=all&date=12152006
IMBD movie meter;
#6 Eragon
#33 Pursuit of Happiness
#68 Charlottes Webb
this week was easy as far which way the lines were gonna go...i still cant believe pinny posted 17 for PofH...my eyeballs almost popped outta their sockets...
i think this weekend in general is gonna be a big for box office totals...the last 2 weeks have been soft...this week is gonna change that...there are 3 movies that people will want to see and as evidenced by HF and JB21 a month ago...if the demand is there for the movies, the grosses will be there...
im done now till the end of the week when the theatre counts come out etc...then i may buy something back or try for a middle etc
gl guys
i think this weekend in general is gonna be a big for box office totals...the last 2 weeks have been soft...this week is gonna change that...there are 3 movies that people will want to see and as evidenced by HF and JB21 a month ago...if the demand is there for the movies, the grosses will be there...
im done now till the end of the week when the theatre counts come out etc...then i may buy something back or try for a middle etc
gl guys
Bookings, Mixed Signals Edition Usual Megaplex
3 ERAGN
2 PRHAP
2 CHWEB
30 is the absolute highest for a PG live action family film here on 2 screens.
Madea's Family Reunion is the highest two screen opening here ala PRHAP.
TALDG broke the record for a 3 screen booking, but I don't even think the Shurtugal fans are thinking anywhere near that high for ERAGN
______________________________________________________________
thats a nice sign for Eragon overs....i really like all 3 of my positions right now after reading that...
3 ERAGN
2 PRHAP
2 CHWEB
30 is the absolute highest for a PG live action family film here on 2 screens.
Madea's Family Reunion is the highest two screen opening here ala PRHAP.
TALDG broke the record for a 3 screen booking, but I don't even think the Shurtugal fans are thinking anywhere near that high for ERAGN
______________________________________________________________
thats a nice sign for Eragon overs....i really like all 3 of my positions right now after reading that...
Advance Sales Update - Lexington, KY
Thanks to the magic of Blackberry, I'm fortunate to have some early numbers this week:
Eragon - 21 (12 Friday, 9 Saturday)
Pursuit - 4 (All Friday)
Web - 2 (Both Friday)
Good for Eragon ($20M minimum, IMO), and poor for Charlotte's Web at this point. Pursuit isn't the type of film to get many advance sales, but this figure could be viewed as good or bad depending on whether or not you think Smith fans will rush out to see him in any role.
Thanks to the magic of Blackberry, I'm fortunate to have some early numbers this week:
Eragon - 21 (12 Friday, 9 Saturday)
Pursuit - 4 (All Friday)
Web - 2 (Both Friday)
Good for Eragon ($20M minimum, IMO), and poor for Charlotte's Web at this point. Pursuit isn't the type of film to get many advance sales, but this figure could be viewed as good or bad depending on whether or not you think Smith fans will rush out to see him in any role.
with minimal reviews out I'm getting the feeling this movie does blow. Not Grudge 2 bad but bad nonetheless.
Had to buy some back. Still left with a good play on the Over but not a large play anymore. Really believe the line is too low and even with poor reviews it should get into the mid 20's.
Will wait for theatre counts and more reviews before taking further action.
Had to buy some back. Still left with a good play on the Over but not a large play anymore. Really believe the line is too low and even with poor reviews it should get into the mid 20's.
Will wait for theatre counts and more reviews before taking further action.
HPark i was gonna post about this last night...SOMEONE out there is betting Eragon UNDER...maybe they know something...
i agree with you i think it should get into the 20's but im not gonna get left holding the bag if it flops...im sticking with my small 1/2unit bet for now...
i was thinking about CW today and my line of 25m....how much do you think this will make on friday...friday is obviously gonna be is worst day...i mean to beat 25M i think it has to pull a 6M+ friday...
6
12
9 would give it 25M....i dont know if this movie can pull in 6M on friday..it would have to perform BETTER than APOCL...i think this getting 5M on friday is asking a lot....
i agree with you i think it should get into the 20's but im not gonna get left holding the bag if it flops...im sticking with my small 1/2unit bet for now...
i was thinking about CW today and my line of 25m....how much do you think this will make on friday...friday is obviously gonna be is worst day...i mean to beat 25M i think it has to pull a 6M+ friday...
6
12
9 would give it 25M....i dont know if this movie can pull in 6M on friday..it would have to perform BETTER than APOCL...i think this getting 5M on friday is asking a lot....
All the indicators I watch suggest Web isn't going to perform greatly. Its not doing well on buzz charts, its trailer is only 10th at yahoo, poor presales, dismal showing down under etc. However I know the audience coming out for this probably isn't on the internet a whole lot.
I think a 5-6 mill Friday is fair. With a 4 IM or so it should stay under 25.
I do expect the theatre count to shoot up to close to 3500 though. Eragon too should get a few hundred extra then stated currently.
I think a 5-6 mill Friday is fair. With a 4 IM or so it should stay under 25.
I do expect the theatre count to shoot up to close to 3500 though. Eragon too should get a few hundred extra then stated currently.
I think this thing has the potential to bomb and to bomb big. I just dont see how this thing even gets into the 20s. No boys are going to see it and the girls dont want to see it. Neither my wife nor my 2 young daughters have any interest at all - and they have all read the box. They didnt even know it was out and when they found out they shrugged. I offered to take my girls and they declined.HPark1 said:
Of course, being sure on a movie is the best way to lose your bankroll. However, this movie has a much bigger chance of being under than of breaking out.
